I’d suspect any future grade separation will be road over – as you mention, dropping the tracks wouldn’t work, and the surrounding houses are some distance away, so NIMBY concerns should be few and far between.

What do you think the most likely outcome will be when they do remove the crossing? I looked at the aerial map and honestly don’t think they would lower the railway line because it’s too close to Cardinia Rd station (I doubt they’d demolish a station only built 4 years ago).

I also don’t think they’d put the road over or under because they’d do it from now.

Perhaps the government will make a surprise announcement like they did about the partial duplication on the Altona Loop.

It’s a hard line to walk – spending $$$ upfront and “overengineering” for the future; compared to completing a good enough solution, spending the savings elsewhere, then spending more money at a future time.

As for Pakenham station, it’s a bit of a joke considering how much usage it gets – terminating trains and through V/Line trains have to fight over a pair of platforms, with low speed 40 km/h points linking the tracks, and signal aspects that slow down approaching trains unnecessarily.

McGregor Road duplication looks to be a Cardinia Shire Council funded project – while the level crossing falls to the state government:

http://edwardodonohue.com.au/labor-must-commit-to-mcgregor-road-level-crossing-upgrade/

The problem with McGregor Road crossing which is the one with the absurdly long wait time, from what I gather is due to multiple movements into Pakenham during peak the lack of platforms and where the crossing circuits starts.

Depending on the time and combination of the movements that crossing can be activated by the Down suburban which would just be sitting there held up by a signal at danger (mind you the crossing is already activated) as it waits for the Up suburban to depart, emptying the platform for the Down to arrive into, or waiting for the Up V/line Gippsland service to arrive into Pakenham, dwell for passengers to detrain/board and then depart which allows Down Pakenham suburban service to have a empty platform to terminated, this is why road uses can be stuck at that particular crossing for a good 10-15mins, also Main Street and McGregor Road crossings are tied together so even if the Down suburban service waits on the down side of that crossing for the cross, the crossing would still be activated.

I guess further up the line many crossing include a few marked for removal soon has long wait times due to the very same scenario.

Now back to why McGregor Road duplication is such a laugh, in regards to shortsightedness of why Cardinia road duplication not being grade separated is due to the can of worms it would open as McGregor Road duplication which recently finished isn’t grade separated, in fact you’ll find that road now goes from two lane into one at the crossing back into two now how’s that for a laugh, at least with Cardinia Road it’s both duplicated lanes through a crossing.