Some background

Early government media releases used generic language such as:

“This project will create space to run more trains, more often, right across Melbourne. We’re getting it done.” said Premier Daniel Andrews.

As well as:

“We know these changes will be disruptive but we need to get on and build the Metro Tunnel – so we can deliver the frequent, reliable, turn-up-and-go transport system passengers need.” said Minister for Public Transport Jacinta Allan.

The only hard figures being an increase in peak capacity.

And the Melbourne Metro Program “Business Case Baseline” document dated February 2016 showing half of off-peak trains terminating at West Footscray.

Leaving Sunshine as a station where V/Line services outnumber ‘Metro’ ones.

But those pathetic sounding numbers didn’t actually reflect the service that the government intended to provide through the Metro Tunnel – a spokesperson ringing up blogger Daniel Bowen and telling him it was just a “base case” and not a service plan – which just left us all in the dark as to what the Metro Tunnel would deliver.

But is this it?

In September 2022 the Victorian Government published the Melbourne Airport Rail business case, with a 296 page main report, and a 413 pages of appendices.

And on page 11 of the appendices is what we’ve all been waiting for – a proposed service specification for the Metro Tunnel.

The assumed service specification of each option is summarised in the tables below. Note these assumed service specifications are for the purpose of comparing the options only. All changes to the Base Case under each option are highlighted orange.

The number of trains due to use the Metro Tunnel before the opening of the Melbourne Airport line.

And after the Melbourne Airport line has been completed.

So if the above is to be believed, the Sunbury line is in line for a massive off-peak service increase once the Metro Tunnel opens:

• Sunbury – twice as many trains, from every 40 minutes to every 20 minutes,
• Watergardens – twice as many trains, from every 20 minutes to a ‘turn up and go’ 10 minute frequency,
• Sunshine – three times as many trains, with a ‘turn up and go’ 10 minute frequency, with three more trains slotted in between,
• West Footscray – four times as many trains, with one every 5 minutes.

And once Melbourne Airport line opens, things will become even better – the Sunshine and West Footscray shortworkings will be extended through to Melbourne Airport, providing a 5 minute off-peak frequency to the Sunbury line as far as Sunshine.

Now we just need to hope that this is what actually gets delivered!

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‘More trains more often’ is one of the line being used by the Melbourne Metro Rail Authority to spruik the benefits of the new rail tunnel being built under the Melbourne CBD – but in reality it is a half-truth.

With the tunnel linking the Sunbury line in Melbourne’s north-west to the Pakenham and Cranbourne lines in the south-east, the two additional tracks and five new stations will free up space in the existing City Loop tunnels, providing benefits to rail users all across Melbourne.

Government media releases are using language such as:

“This project will create space to run more trains, more often, right across Melbourne. We’re getting it done.” said Premier Daniel Andrews.

As well as:

“We know these changes will be disruptive but we need to get on and build the Metro Tunnel – so we can deliver the frequent, reliable, turn-up-and-go transport system passengers need.” said Minister for Public Transport Jacinta Allan.

But if the Melbourne Metro Program “Business Case Baseline” document dated February 2016 is anything to go by, it appears that the full benefits of the new rail tunnel won’t be taken advantage of. It starts explaining why the document was created:

This document summarises the service plan expectations for lines affected by the Melbourne Metro program:

– immediately after completion of the Melbourne Metro program; and,
– subsequent to completion of an extended program of works designed to demonstrate benefits enabled by future provisions being made as part of the Melbourne Metro design.

These proposed service plans are the baseline that should be adopted to underpin development and evaluation of the Melbourne Metro Rail Project (including preparation of the business case and associated scope for the project).

As well as what the plan will deliver to rail passengers.

The service plan should:

> establish the Sunshine – Dandenong line operation via the new tunnel alignment, including:
• commencing passenger services to the new stations at Arden, Parkville, CBD North, CBD South and Domain;
• providing service increases appropriate to meet the demands forecast for the corridor; and,
• operating all services on the line with HCMT rolling stock.

> re-establishing a consistent Frankston line routing through the inner core:
• with all services operating via the city loop (Caulfield underground loop); and
• providing service increases appropriate to meet the demands forecast for the corridor.

> re-establishing a consistent routing of Craigieburn and Upfield lines within the inner core:
• with all services operating via the city loop (Northern underground loop); and
• providing service increases appropriate to meet the demands forecast for each corridor.

> establishing a consistent through operation from the Sandringham line via Richmond, Flinders Street and Southern Cross and North Melbourne stations as part of the Cross City group:
• including provision of additional peak period services from South Yarra to Flinders Street; and
• providing service increases appropriate to meet the demands forecast for the corridor.

> modify service operation on the Werribee, Williamstown and Laverton lines as part of changes to the Cross City group, to provide service increases appropriate to the demands forecast for the corridor.

Then gives a real kick in the guts for anyone living west of Footscray.

Yes, you read that correctly – under this plan only three trains off-peak per hour will head west to Sunshine, St Albans and Watergardens – with 50% of services from the city terminating at an expensive turnback siding at West Footscray!

Can you imagine such a poor service being provided to the likes of Camberwell or Caulfield?

Living with a train every 20 minutes

Three trains per hour is the current level of service provided off-peak on the Sunbury line.

Resulting in grossly overcrowded Sunbury line trains as soon as the clock strikes 9am.

Running trains 10 minutes apart off-peak isn’t a new idea – way back in 2009 it was tested on the Werribee line, then permanently introduced to the Frankston line in 2011, and the line as far as Dandenong in 2014.

So why is the Metro Tunnel business plan aiming so low? They do state that their assumptions aren’t a limit on services to be provided.

The proposed service plans do not represent a recommendation to limit development of the future network and should not constrain Government from making further improvements to the Public Transport Network.

Implementation of the proposed service plans is subject to the discretion and influence of the stakeholders in Victoria’s public transport network, in the context of information available closer to the time of implementation – including growth rates and policy changes.

By it does give some oxygen to a theory Daniel Bowen came up with back in 2016 – Labor seems to be better at building new public transport infrastructure, while the the Coalition seems to be better are funding additional services to take advantage of them.

Remember the promises of Regional Rail Link?

Back in the early-2010s Melbourne’s west was promised that the Regional Rail Link project would enable additional suburban rail services to operate, by building new tracks to be used by V/Line services to regional Victoria.

But the extra track capacity yet to be fully taken advantage of – with the Victorian Auditor‐General’s stating in May 2018:

The project has not yet fully realised some specific benefits articulated in the Victorian Government’s 2013 booklet Regional Rail Link Benefits for Victorians, particularly the creation of capacity for an additional 10 metropolitan services in the two‐hour morning peak period at the RRL’s opening, with only five new metropolitan services delivered to date.

Will Melbourne Metro follow the same path?

And the ‘Extended Program’ service proposal

The Metro Tunnel business case also includes an ‘Extended Program’ service proposal – described as:

The Melbourne Metro program business case identified a series of subsequent investments with benefits substantially relying on ‘future-proofing’ elements on the Melbourne Metro design.

An ‘Extended Program’ including a range of these investments to enable the operations and passenger catchment of the Sunshine-Dandenong line to be expanded was therefore included in the business case to demonstrate the longer-term benefits of the Melbourne Metro investment. These subsequent investments, and associated benefits expected, include:

> substantial increase in capacity and service provision to the growth area west of Sunshine through amplification and electrification of the rail line to Melton, to enable:

• a high-frequency, high-capacity suburban service to be provided to this growth area; and
• improved and maintained separation of suburban and regional trains operating on the Regional Rail Link corridor to improve capacity and reliability of regional services on the Bendigo, Ballarat and Geelong corridors.

> introduction of Extended HCMT (10-car) across the corridor to accommodate rapid growth forecast for the growth areas east of Dandenong and west along the Sunbury and Melton corridors.

It provides a long list of other yet-to-be funded infrastructure upgrades:

To support this outcome, the following subsequent investments are expected to be required:

> Provision of an additional track pair between Sunshine and Deer Park for dedicated use by regional services operating on the RRL trunk.
> Electrification of a track pair between Sunshine and Deer Park, providing platforms suitable for Extended HCMT operation at all existing stations in this section.
> Provision of a grade-separated junction enabling electric services to operate on the newly electrified track pair west from Sunshine to merge into the Sunshine Dandenong line on the Down side of Sunshine station (continuing to/from the CBD) without facing conflicts with any other services.
> Duplication and electrification of the track pair between Deer Park and Melton, with provision of Extended HCMT stabling and a turn-back facility at Melton for electric services.
> Provision of an at-grade junction between the RRL and electrified track pair on the Down side of Deer Park, to enable regional services operating on the Ballarat line to merge with suburban services to Melton.
> Expansion of the number of HCMT trains dedicated to operation of the corridor and lengthening of some trains to provide a mix of Standard and Extended HCMT trains.
> Upgrade to any surface stations, stabling, maintenance or traction power systems on the Sunshine-Dandenong line not already supporting Extended HCMT operation at MM Day-1.
> Upgrades in the regional area to accommodate growth and changes to regional paths.

And the level of service possible once it is built.

Note that despite the amount of upgrade works required to support this ‘Extended Program’ an off-peak service of three trains per hour still applies for passengers beyond Sunshine – both the Sunbury and Melton lines will see a train every 20 minutes, providing a train every 10 minutes to stations between Sunshine and Footscray.

Can you imagine such a poor service being provided to Melbourne’s east?

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